Food Security Falters

Since the start of the war in Iran, the average price of gas in the US has climbed by nearly a dollar.

While our attention has been focused on the price of gas, a second, more dire, quieter crisis is unfolding in the agricultural sector: a global fertilizer shortage.

In addition to oil and gas, about one-third of the global seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The region is a vital producer of nitrogen fertilizers, accounting for roughly 20% of global phosphate fertilizers and a quarter of the world’s sulphur, which is essential for processing phosphate rock into plant-absorbable liquids.

With the Strait effectively closed, fertilizer prices are skyrocketing.

The Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Máximo Torero, warned that we are facing one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in years, with significant implications for food security, agricultural production, and global markets.

Several nations are rapidly approaching crisis levels.

In India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, fertilizer firms have shut down production due to the deprivation of natural gas supplies from Qatar.

Bangladesh is currently in its critical Boro rice season, while India faces reduced domestic production ahead of the Kharif season.

Sri Lanka is still recovering from previous agricultural policy shocks, and the nation is highly exposed as its Maha rice harvest is underway.

Ethiopia relies on the Gulf for over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer, which it imports through Djibouti. With the planting season underway, the sudden halt in deliveries threatens critical crop yields.

Sudan and Somalia have experienced famine in recent years and are highly vulnerable. Sudan imports around 80% of its wheat, while Somalia, already battling severe drought, has seen the prices of essential commodities rise by at least 20% since the Iran conflict began.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has tracked emergency demand-reduction measures across Asia, with some countries implementing fuel rationing, school closures, and remote-work mandates to cope with compounding energy and agricultural shocks.

Canadian and US farmers are not immune to these price hikes as the fertilizer crisis expands globally.

US farmers were already struggling.

A total of 54 agricultural groups recently wrote to The Donald to call for “much-needed market relief for America’s farmers” amid surging fuel and fertilizer prices.

“As planting season began in earnest across much of the US, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent fuel and fertilizer prices skyrocketing,” they said. “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.”

Even though Canada produces most of its own fertilizer supplies, buyers here are still subject to global commodity prices. It’s similar to the current spike in international oil prices, which is affecting Canada’s own crude and gasoline prices.

Even if the US and Iran were to end the war today, the cost implications on farmers worldwide during a critical growing season could ripple through the global food supply for the rest of this year and into 2027.

However, hunger is a systems problem, not a yield problem.

The world currently produces enough calories to nourish over ten billion people.

According to the UNEP Food Waste Index Report 2024, one-fifth of all food produced globally is lost or wasted, adding up to over one billion meals a day.

Regenerative agriculture, which includes practices such as cover cropping, crop rotation, and agroforestry, builds soil health and relies on natural nutrient cycling rather than imported chemicals.

A landmark 2026 meta-analysis published in Nature Communications found that agricultural diversification maintains neutral crop yields while increasing financial profitability, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration by up to 2,823% over 20 years.

Adjusting food production and food distribution systems does not require that the Strait of Hormuz remain open.

Our current fertilizer, oil, and gas price shocks are forcing a long-overdue reckoning with food supply chain efficiency and food waste.

The problems are solvable; we just have to decide to solve them.

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