Is Tesla Fucked Or Fine?

Tesla shares trended up this week on the hopes and dreams of the company launching a functioning robotaxi service.

The Tesla fanboys and faithful are bullish on the opportunity that autonomous robotaxis might represent. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla stock price target to $500, representing 46% upside, as he believes "the golden age of autonomous is now on the doorstep for Tesla." investors.com

Elon still affirms that Tesla robotaxis will be on the streets of Austin, Texas, by the end of June. reuters.com

That’s soon. Like, real soon.

Although Tesla recently rolled out some updates to their Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration requested that Tesla share its FSD data before the robotaxi launch next month.

The agency is investigating Tesla for several safety defects, and is concerned that the robotaxi launch may use FSD, which has proven dangerous on the road. electrek.co, teslarati.com

Ashok Elluswamy, Head of Autopilot and AI Software at Tesla, admitted during a recent interview that their self-driving tech is still "a couple of years" behind Waymo.

"Equal quality," said Ashok when discussing Waymo's self-driving progress compared to Tesla. "Technically, Waymo is already performing. We are lagging by maybe a couple of years." insideevs.com

“It's going to fail for sure,” Dan O’Dowd, a long-time critic of Tesla’s autonomous driving claims, who has spent his own money on Super Bowl ads to call out Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD safety flaws. forbes.com

So, what will Tesla launch in June if they launch anything at all?

Don’t expect to see too many driverless Teslas on the road.

Asked if the initial rollout would only have 10 to 12 driverless cars on some parts of Austin, Musk had this to say:

“I think it's prudent for us to start with a small number, confirm that things are going well, and then scale it up proportionate to how well we see it's doing right.” Musk estimates the company will have roughly 1,000 of them in a few months.

“We'll start with probably 10 for a week, then increase it to 20, 30, 40, and I think we’ll probably be at 1,000 within a few months, and then we'll expand to San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, San Antonio,” Musk added. insideevs.com, businessinsider.com

The operating geography for the launch will be geofenced. cnbc.com

And a team of remote operators will be available to pilot the so-called autonomous Cybercabs. gizmodo.com

They say you shouldn’t bet against the richest man in the world, but it’s hard to believe Tesla is going to pull this robotaxi launch out of their asses. The company is facing headwinds on multiple fronts.

A class-action suit claims Tesla rigs odometers with software to void warranties early, costing drivers thousands. autoblog.com

According to a report by JATO Dynamics, Chinese automaker BYD sold more electric vehicles in Europe than Tesla in April. cnbc.com, arstechnica.com

Scott Galloway says Elon’s DOGE government cost-cutting efforts for the Trump administration were “one of the greatest brand destructions” ever. “He’s alienated the wrong people,” Galloway remarked. “Three-quarters of Republicans would never consider buying an EV. So he’s cozied up to the people who aren’t interested in EVs.” theguardian.com

Elon’s close ties to The Donald have prompted Democratic lawmakers to propose stripping Tesla of its ability to sell its cars directly to consumers in New York. nytimes.com

Ironically, The Donald’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” hurts Tesla’s potential to gain back lost sales by killing the EV tax credit and adding a new $250 fee to electric vehicles sold in the US. electrek.co

Two journalists took rides in both a Waymo and a Tesla Model 3 using FSD to attempt to compare the two experiences. During their tests, the Tesla ran a red light. businessinsider.com

A video surfaced this week of a Tesla Model 3 using Full Self-Driving that suddenly swerved off the road, crashing into a fence for no apparent reason. futurism.com

The Information reported that Tesla is already woefully behind schedule on the Cybercab launch and hasn't even started testing its autonomous vehicles without a safety driver. futurism.com

Elon has a long history of making ambitious product promises and delivering them late. reuters.com

Will the Tesla Cybercab hit the road by the end of June?

Maybe.

But I certainly wouldn’t want to go for a ride in one.

China’s Automotive Expansion

Xiaomi unveiled its hotly anticipated YU7 electric SUV in China this past week. theverge.com

XPENG's X9 EV is packed with opulent features like seat massagers and a mini fridge. mashable.com

CATL launched a standardized battery pack solution for battery swap-enabled heavy-duty trucks. cnevpost.com

Updated IM LS6 SUV from SAIC and Alibaba will get an EREV option. carnewschina.com

Oakland International Airport added five new BYD K9MD electric shuttle buses to its ground equipment fleet. electrek.co

Stellantis-backed Leapmotor aims to break even this year. autonews.com

Mazda partnered with CATL to adopt their cell-to-chassis technology to speed up the development of future EVs in China. autonews.com

Nissan announced that its new N7 EV set a new sales record in China, taking over 10,000 orders in just 18 days. electrek.co

Rise Of The Machines

Ground Control Robotics’ giant centipede robot is designed for data collecting and weeding on challenging farm terrain. spectrum.ieee.org

Anduril gave a behind-the-scenes look at Fury, its AI fighter drone built to fly alongside other military aircraft. businessinsider.com, cbsnews.com

Nvidia and Uber-funded robot company, Serve, is betting that food delivery and access to public markets are the keys to scaling robotics. techcrunch.com

China’s UBTech Robotics plans to unveil a $20,000 humanoid robot that can serve as a household companion this year. bloomberg.com

Hyundai’s new robot will automatically plug in and charge your EV. electrek.co

Energy

The Donald wants to use coal to power AI data centers. www.cnbc.com

Shares of nuclear power companies closed higher on Friday after The Donald signed executive orders to help jumpstart the industry. reuters.com

Ontario Power Generation expects to build a CAD$7.7B Small Modular Reactor (SMR), the first in North America, at their Darlington site by 2030. oilprice.com

TotalEnergies of France has signed a deal to buy liquefied natural gas from the planned Ksi Lisims LNG facility in British Columbia. theglobeandmail.com

A research team at the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research has developed a new type of sodium-ion battery that can charge up to 80% in six minutes, lasting over 3,000 charge cycles. interestingengineering.com

But Wait, There’s More

Toyota’s new Rav4 PHEV will let you “fast-charge” the battery. theverge.com

VW builds its first pre-series ID.2 parts and the low-cost battery system to power it. electrek.co

Cadillac’s expanding EV lineup is attracting a notable number of new buyers to the brand, including former Tesla owners trading in their EVs. cnbc.com

Starting this summer, Chevrolet will offer its popular off-road Trail Boss trim as part of the 2026 Silverado EV lineup. pressroom.chevrolet.com

Nissan is considering selling its global headquarters to raise capital. autonews.com

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi is okay with reinventing the bus. theverge.com

Research from the University of Exeter, UK, found that electric trucks are on course to overtake diesel equivalents in terms of lifetime cost. thedriven.io

The US Senate voted to strip California of its ability to enact state-specific limits on vehicle carbon emissions that are different and stricter than national standards. theverge.com

A coalition of eleven US states has launched an Affordable Clean Cars Coalition to expand access to clean cars in response to the Senate’s actions against California. electrek.co

Circle K opened its first location exclusively for EV charging in Europe. electrek.co

Waymo gets approval to expand robotaxi service into more of Silicon Valley. techcrunch.com

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