Partying Like It’s 2024

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I got a lot of text messages, phone calls, and emails on Friday asking for my opinion on the news that Canada signed a ‘landmark’ tariff-quota deal with China on EVs and agricultural products.

Frankly, I wasn’t very excited, and I didn’t have much to say.

I’m not sure that this deal is worth all the noise and attention it’s getting.

Don’t get me wrong, like a lot of Canadians, I’m pleased that Canada is diversifying its trade partnerships.

Especially since some of our historically friendly and reliable trade partners have been less partner-y than we’re used to.

And some of those partners appear to exhibit a tendency to harass, abuse, and shoot their citizens in the face and then lie about it.

But I’m not calling out any specific nations here.

If you’re a Canadian canola farmer or in the lobster business, you probably had a pretty good Friday.

However, contrary to much of what you’ve heard in the news, the automotive impact is really a nothing-burger.

Let me explain.

Based on Mark Carney’s masterful negotiations (do you smell the sarcasm), Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) into the Canadian market, with a 6.1% tariff.

A 49,000-car quota represents about 2.5% of all vehicles sold in the country.

That’s not a huge number of vehicles, given that there are over a hundred Chinese vehicle brands and even more non-Chinese OEMs with joint ventures that manufacture in China.

Does each brand get to sell around 490 vehicles a year in the Great White North?

Also, that quota number is suspiciously specific.

Because in 2024, wait for it, Canadians bought around 49,000 Chinese vehicles.

Paraphrasing the immortal words of Prince, Canada’s automotive market is going to party like it’s 2024.

Which Chinese-made vehicles were sold in Canada in 2024?

The EV Models Included:

Tesla Model 3 and Model Y: Units manufactured at Tesla’s Giga Shanghai factory were imported to Canada throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Polestar 2: This model was exclusively assembled at Geely’s Luqiao factory in China for the Canadian market.

Volvo EX30: Early 2024 deliveries to Canada were sourced from Chinese assembly plants before production for North America shifted to Belgium later in the year.

The ICE Models Included:

Lincoln Nautilus: Production for the second-generation Nautilus was moved from Ontario to Changan Ford in Hangzhou, China, in mid-2024.

Buick Envision: This SUV is fully assembled at the Dong Yue Motors plant in Yantai, China, and has been sold in Canada for several years.

Conspicuous by its absence in the deal was any mention of internal combustion engine vehicles.

Chinese OEMs make vehicles with all sorts of drivetrains: ICEs, PHEVs, HEVs, EREVs, and BEVs.

Contrary to the talk track in many North American automotive circles about EVs, Chinese buyers don’t want ICE vehicles, so Chinese OEMs are dumping them in other parts of the world.

Can they dump their cheap ICE vehicles in Canada now? I’m sure people would buy them.

Time will tell.

There were mixed reviews of Canada’s new Chinese EV ambitions.

Doug Ford (a.k.a. Dougie) slammed the deal, saying, “The federal government is inviting a flood of cheap made-in-China electric vehicles without any real guarantee of equal or immediate investments in Canada’s economy, auto sector or supply chain.”

Based on the actual numbers, it isn’t an electric vehicle flood.

It’s more like a trickle-charge.

Stateside, the responses to Carney’s deal were mixed.

The Donald had a surprisingly favourable response to the news.

Donny said, “Well, that’s OK, that’s what you should be doing. I mean, it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that, right?”

While hanging out with Jim Farley at a Ford plant, The Donald also said this week that the USMCA (or CUSMA for us Canadians), which supports the longstanding free trade of parts and vehicles across North America, was “irrelevant”. So, that’s a thing.

After their hang in the plant, Jim Farley commented that he sees Canada and Mexico as a manufacturing system that is integrated with the US. He described the USMCA as “Very critical for us, but we need revisions.”

Other folk in The Donald’s administration had different opinions (for the first time in a long time).

“I think they’ll look back at this decision and surely regret it to bring Chinese cars into their market,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said at an event at a Ford factory in Ohio.

Sean-y-boy might want to call Donny-boy to compare notes before he opens up his mouth again.

It is expected that, in five years, more than 50% of these Chinese EVs will be priced under $35,000, and the annual quota will be raised to 70,000 vehicles.

That is fantastic news for Canadian consumers who are struggling with cost concerns across all household purchases, even if the perception of a cost crisis might be the thing that is causing the cost crisis in the first place.

There’s also some loose language from the Canadian government suggesting that the agreement will drive substantial new Chinese joint venture investment in Canada. But it is very unclear what that means or what that might look like.

There is a fair bit of speculation that other cheaper EV models from brands like BYD, Geely and Chery might be on their way to Canadian shores in the not-too-distant future, but that’s unlikely.

There’s no dealer network for those brands in Canada yet.

Their vehicles don’t meet Canadian safety standards today.

We’re much more likely to see tariff price reductions on Polestars, Volvos, and Teslas, which will chew into most of that 49,000 quota before any number of vehicle sales from new-to-Canada brands do.

It would also be fantastic to see the Chinese-built Ford Bronco EV on Canadian streets (a Bronco variant that might soon include a BYD battery).

Toyota could import the adorable yet still poorly named bZ3X as an affordable EV option.

Or maybe Stellantis could turn UNIFOR’s frown upsidedown by agreeing to manufacture the Leapmotor B05 at one of its idle facilities.

China isn’t the only game in town. The Government of Canada is also seeking auto assembly investment from VW and Hyundai.

Either way, Chinese OEMs have some work to do to establish trust with Canadian consumers, Canadian dealerships, and Canadian auto group leadership.

Elon announced that Tesla would stop selling its Full Self-Driving feature as a standalone package. Instead, the Level 2 driver-assist system would be offered only as a monthly subscription. techcrunch.com

Elon says Tesla is “almost done” with AI5 computer and chip design, 6 months after saying it was already finished (lay off the ketamine, bro). electrek.co

Starlink is blocked in South Africa; Elon says it’s because he is not black. africa.businessinsider.com

Tesla’s Model Y can now be bought in the US with a third row of seats, but this is not the larger, six-seater Model Y L that the company is selling in China. mashable.com

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gave Tesla five weeks to respond to its FSD probe. arstechnica.com

Tesla sales in Canada fell more than 60% in 2025. autonews.com

Wing is bringing drone delivery to even more Walmart stores in 2026. The Alphabet-owned company announced today that its drones will be flying above 150 more locations this year, including in four new cities: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Miami, and Cincinnati. theverge.com

Hyundai plans to appoint Milan Kovac, the former head of Tesla’s Optimus robot program, as an adviser to bolster its competitiveness in robotics and artificial intelligence. reuters.com

China and Canada are pushing to expand energy deals, with Canada looking to sell more oil and gas to China and courting Chinese investment in battery technology and renewable energy. bloomberg.com

The Donald said he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela after its top executive expressed skepticism about oil investment in the country. apnews.com

US completes first sale of Venezuelan oil. cbsnews.com

American oil executives are hesitant to return to Venezuela. forbes.com

The US’s largest offshore wind farm can resume construction. electrek.co

Ontario announces expansion of underwater electricity transmission lines for Toronto. cbc.ca

The world’s first megawatt-level airborne floating “windmill” completed a successful test flight. interestingengineering.com

US automakers are increasingly entering the energy storage business as they pivot away from electric vehicles and try to make use of their battery factories. cnbc.com

BMW says electric M3 will be a ‘new level’ of performance. theverge.com

Porsche suffered its biggest annual sales decline in 16 years. reuters.com

Mercedes temporarily scraps its Level 3 ‘eyes-off’ driving feature. theverge.com

The FTC’s data-sharing order against GM is finally settled. techcrunch.com

Ford plans to bring its Super Mustang Mach-E electric monster racecar back to Pikes Peak for the 2026 race. electrek.co

Honda announced that the next-generation Acura RDX will be the brand’s first SUV to feature a two-motor hybrid system. theverge.com

Honda’s solar-powered trailer is a perfect match for EV owners who love camping. mashable.com

Nissan announced last month that it will be the first automaker in the US to offer wireless chargers with a magnetic mount. theverge.com

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